Hazards Outlook Overview

The National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center has released its latest U.S. Week-2 Hazards Outlook, highlighting significant temperature and weather hazards across the country for the coming period.[1] The outlook was issued on June 1, 2026, covering the period from Tuesday, June 9 through Monday, June 15, 2026.[1]

Temperature Hazards in Focus

Mid-level high pressure forecast over southern Canada is expected to bring above-normal temperatures for much of the country during the outlook period.[1] This pattern is a key driver of the probabilistic hazards signal flagged by forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland.[1]

The probabilistic hazards outlook is released every weekday and targets the Day 8–14 forecast period for potential hazardous conditions.[9] Hazard probabilities are expressed in three tiers: slight risk covering 20–40%, moderate risk at 40–60%, and high risk at 60% or greater.[9]

Severe Weather and Flooding Risks

Severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the northern Plains, which could bring large hail, damaging winds, and possible tornadoes.[6] Thunderstorms with heavy to excessive rainfall may produce flooding over parts of the southern High Plains and North Dakota.[6]

Across the West, a late season storm system is forecast to bring abnormal moisture to California, Oregon, and Washington, with precipitation spreading eastward to the northern Rockies by mid-week.[11] The heaviest accumulations are forecast across the southern Cascades.[11]

Drought and Precipitation Concerns

The CPC Hazards Outlook also incorporates Rapid Onset Drought signals alongside temperature, precipitation, wind, and snow hazard categories.[9] Storms are favored across the Plains states throughout the week, with a potential for one inch or locally more across portions of Nebraska and Kansas.[11]

Unsettled weather is favored to continue across the Southeast, with the focus of heaviest precipitation shifting towards Florida and the south Atlantic coastal plain.[11] A slow-moving cold front is forecast to push east during the period, maintaining rainy weather across the Deep South while cooler and drier conditions spread over the Corn Belt.[11]

How the Probabilistic System Works

The CPC Hazards Outlook forecast is mainly represented in probabilities, covering slight, moderate, and high risk thresholds, with some variables such as Rapid Onset Drought handled differently.[9] The outlook is produced by the National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center and associated agencies including NOAA and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction.[9]

For hazardous weather in the shorter range, the Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook provides additional detail at the local forecast office level, covering areas of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall on a day-by-day basis.[6] Local NWS forecast offices remain the recommended resource for short-range hazard specifics.[7]

What to Watch

The dominant story heading into mid-June is the building heat signal tied to high pressure over southern Canada and its downstream effects on temperature hazards across a broad swath of the United States.[1] Forecasters will continue to refine probabilistic signals as the period draws closer, particularly for severe weather corridors in the Plains and flood-prone areas in the South.[6] Check the forecast for your city to see the latest hazard outlook for your area.