A severe heatwave across Europe this summer killed at least 35,000 people, and researchers say the disaster is a warning sign for Africa as a stronger El Niño weather pattern approaches.1
A so-called super El Niño, one of the strongest versions of this cycle, is forecast to arrive during the Southern Hemisphere summer, raising concern for already vulnerable regions including Africa.1
What happened this summer
Heatwaves also struck India, wildfires spread across Indonesia, and a glacial melt-related flood disaster hit Nepal, according to Dhesigen Naidoo, a research associate with the Climate Risk and Human Security Project at the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), a policy research organization based in Pretoria, South Africa.1
July 2026 was the hottest month ever recorded, tying with July 2024, and the highest sea surface temperatures on record were logged the following month.1
That combination matters because warmer oceans and warmer air both add extra energy to the atmosphere, a driver of extreme weather events.1
Separately, June and July 2026 marked the hottest two-month stretch in Europe since record-keeping began.3
The contiguous United States also endured its hottest month on record in July, and South Korea logged its highest-ever recorded temperature.3
Why Europe keeps getting hit
Europe is the world's fastest-warming continent, trailing only the Arctic in the pace of regional warming.3
Changes in weather patterns, alongside overall planetary warming, may help explain why Europe keeps suffering so many bouts of severe heat.5
Looking ahead to next year
Scientists are already looking toward 2027, saying the current El Niño event is expected to affect next year's global temperatures more than this year's.3
The lesson from the heatwave and the emerging El Niño is clear: climate risks are increasingly interconnected, but responses to them remain dangerously fragmented, according to an op-ed published on Fairplanet.4
The case for Africa's energy shift
Researchers argue the looming super El Niño makes Africa's transition away from fossil fuels toward a renewables-dominated energy mix more urgent.
Naidoo frames the European crisis as a signal that the Global South, and Africa in particular, faces disproportionate consequences from the extreme weather events building up before the anticipated super El Niño.1
What to watch next
Whether the super El Niño develops as forecast for the Southern Hemisphere summer will shape how severe the next wave of heat, drought, and flood risk becomes for vulnerable regions.1
Check the forecast for your city to stay ahead of extreme heat and shifting seasonal patterns.